Justify My Bid!

You made an aggressive game bid.  Now you have to justify it.  Click next to see the play to the first two tricks and plan the play in 4S.

There are two possibilities here.  One is to get a bunch of tricks by ruffing diamonds and a club in dummy.  The other is to try to establish and run the heart suit.

Let's look at the ruffing option first.  We'll count tricks.  At best we'll win 1 club, 1 diamond and 1 heart.  We'll also at best win all four of east's trump; the 542 by ruffing and the K by force.  That means we must win three of our trump as well.  We can win the A and then the J via a finesse.  A low trump is harder though.  We may need to ruff a heart.  But we can't ruff until the 3rd round, when somebody else can ruff as well.  If that is South, then we may be ok.  If it is North, we are in trouble.

There is another problem: I'm assuming I'll finesse the JS, but I can't spare any low spades from dummy to lead for the finesse.  Now, we might be able to work out something where we lead a heart and win the JS, but that runs into similar problems as trying to ruff with the 7 or 8.  

Notice also that we are essentially setting up the heart suit, but without leaving an entry to get there.  In other words, trying to set up hearts as the plan is almost certainly better.

Let's try to set up hearts instead.  We'd like to draw trumps and set up hearts, but we don't have many entries.  If we have to ruff two hearts we are going to be in trouble, so we should probably assume hearts split 3-2.  Similarly, if the trump break is 4-1, we are in trouble.  So let's assume trumps split and see if we can even make the hand.  If the trump finesse doesn't work, we may also be in trouble, since they may be able to force our entry to the board too early.  Let's assume to start that the QS is with South, and see if we can improve our line later.

Here's the plan:  Play the QH and duck, even if it is covered.  

If the return is a diamond, win the AD, lead a spade to the KS, a spade to the JS, the AS (drawing trumps), a heart to the AH, ruff a heart (establishing the hearts), ruff a diamond or a club in dummy, and dummy is good.  Wow!  We made 5!  Maybe we can afford to ignore the QS in this line.  After winning the AD, cash the AS, KS, AH, ruff a heart.  Hearts are good now.  Whether we were overruffed or not, we can clear trump, ruff a diamond to dummy and run hearts.  No need for the QS onside.

If the return is a club, ruff in dummy.  Now we are short an entry, so we must save the KS as an entry to the hearts.  Lead a spade to the JS, cash the AS, lead a heart to the AH, ruff a heart.  If overruffed, trumps are gone and dummy is high.  If not, lead your last trump to dummy's KS drawing trump, and dummy is high.  Again, we make 5.  

What if the Q is offside.  Then we lose the finesse.  A diamond return is fine, as is a spade return.  Continue along the lines above.  A club return sets us I believe (despite the ruff sluff).  Still, not too bad.

If the return is a heart, win the AH, lead a heart to the JS.  If it wins, play AS and duck a spade.  Then dummy will win the rest.  If the JS loses, we may be in trouble, but if the AKS draw trump, we may still survive.

Finally, if the return is a spade (from north), we can draw trump, play AH and ruff a heart, and ruff a diamond to cash the good hearts.  If it is from South, finesse.  If the finesse wins, life is good.  Play as above.  If it is covered, win the KS, lead to the AS, lead a heart to the AH, ruff a heart, and lead a trump.  Then dummy is high.

To me, this line looks pretty good compared to the attempted crossruff.  We can come up with hands where we make!

What is more, hearts and spades split, and the QS was onside!  So we should make.

Alas, I did not justify my bidding.  I played for a crossruff, realized my mistake too late, and was doomed to down one for a below average board.

P.S.  Bidding and making 3 (the result if I don't accept the invitation with my balanced near minimum) would have tied for a top.  Bidding 3 and making 4 would have been a top.